What does the term "subjective method" in assigning probabilities refer to?

The term "subjective method" in assigning probabilities specifically refers to the approach where personal judgment, intuition, and individual experience are utilized to determine the likelihood of certain outcomes. This method relies on the personal insights and assessments of the individual making the probability estimation, which can be influenced by their unique experiences and perceptions of the situation.

In various contexts, this might manifest as an expert’s opinion used to forecast future events when empirical data or statistical methods are unavailable or insufficient. This contrasts with approaches that rely strictly on quantitative data or established frequencies, which are more objective and quantifiable. Therefore, using personal experience and judgment to assess probability is the hallmark of the subjective method.